America created the world order—what happens when it leaves?

or my lifetime, the map of the world has appeared oddly permanent. Borders have been stable, new countries relatively rare. History was over, to borrow Fukuyama’s phrase. The nation-state is a natural and durable political unit with intrinsic sovereignty. Countries, in general, do not meddle in the internal affairs of other countries.

Today, we can see the beginnings of change. Between Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the recent Israeli recognition of Somaliland, the spat between Rwanda and DRC, and the potential buying of Greenland, borders and countries are once again in flux. Understanding the origin of the current order is crucial to understanding where we go next.

Nation-states, at least in the modern sense, first emerged in Europe, in particular during the 30 Years War that birthed the Westphalian order. After the ravages of war, where an estimated 30% of the population died, peace was created. This peace was sustained by nation-states. What happened within a nation-state was up to them. However, a nation-state using force against other nation-states was generally forbidden.

This order has continued to the present day. Of course, it contains many exceptions for powerful countries, but the fiction was real and useful. Heads of state are treated with respect. Secessionist movements are strongly looked down upon by the international community. Changing borders is forbidden.

In some ways, the current order reflects the original Westphalian peace. Countries are supposed to control violence within their borders, and if they do they are respected as a country. However, that facsimile reflection obscures the underlying changes of the force containment and projection. In reality, the Westphalian order can be broken into two phases, the European order and the American order.